25 Aralık 2019 Çarşamba

Turkey's Upper League Ticket-Libya

   In the last weeks,Turkey announced a maritime deal with Tripoli-based goverment of Libya(Goverment of National Accord).Turkey was helping this UN-recognized goverment since the early 2012.GNA is run by Fayiz es-Sarraj who is the Prime Minister of Libya right now.Maritime delal threatened Greek's physical connection with Cyprus,Israel's new pipeline project to Europe and Egypt' Suez Canal's maritime traffic.After a tense week Turkey announced of a bill that passed the Parliament.Bill includes Quick Reaction Force establishments and Turkish military trainer deployments to Libya.But this informations known by everybody and published by everybody last week.What about the things we didn't heard of ?
    First of all Turkish SADAT preparing for a major Turkish mercenary escalation.Russia's Wagner mercenaries granting Russia basically helping Haftar without being in Libya.Turkey wants the same thing for a while and SADAT is willing to go.(What is SADAT ?-http://www.sadat.com.tr/tr/) Second thing is the Tunisian issue.Tunisia didn't invited to the Berlin to Libyan Talks.Tunisian Prime Minister officially expressed that they are frustrated by that decision.Turkey can use that as a leverage to intervene and be the big brother and can invite Tunisia or at least comment about it.Tunisia is a key country if Turkey wants to militarily intervene Libya.It can be like Kuwait in Gulf War.US amassed troops in Kuwait before they entered Iraq.Turkey can do the same because without a land base in Africa,over Mediterreanean intervention is impossible and Turkey doesn't have any aircraft carrier.That's why Tunisia is very critic for Turkey.
   Another issue is Egypt.Sisi said Egypt will intervene militarily if any country threatens Egypt's interests in Libya.This was a message to Turkey but it didn't make any effect much.Egypt could cause some damage to Turkish interest in Libya but can't destroy it.Turkey should make a deal with Egypt after the possible intervention.Turkey must play the Russian Figure in Syria and show the Syrian Experience to Egyptians and Emirates.
   And that brings us to the Russian Issue.Biggest and most dangerous player in the Libyan field that can destroy Turkish interests.Last reports said Russia is or planning to establish Air Defence Systems in Tarhuna,South of Tripoli.It doesn't sound realistic but the words of it proves Russia is able to do it.Russia doesn't need West's approval to intervene a country like Turkey.Russia could make a deal with Egypt and can move some force to Libya to counter the Turks.But the questions is-Russia would do it ? With the closing end of the Syrian Civil War Russia could see a new Mediterreanean opprtunity in Libya.Or just make the Turks give Idlib or any other interest in Syria let's them go Libya.Either way Russia could use the Turkish interest in Libya to end Syrian Civil War at least militarily.This will give Russia to rebuild Syria and show she is not the devil.It will make Iran a little bit less nervous about the it's economy.
    Finally if the Turks get 'Russian visa' to Libya,there is no wonder things get serious and even more tense in East Mediterreanean.Not long from now,we could see the Turkish flag waving in Libya after 108 years.

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